Research and Publication
Abstract
Electricity demand variation is one of the prevalent phenomena in Nepal. This variation can cause excess electricity during low-demand periods and a shortage during high-demand periods. An early prediction of electricity demand allows for levelling such fluctuations by introducing dynamic tariffs based on varying demands. This study aims to use Python’s time series models to make predictions about electrical demands and propose a dynamic tariff system. The dataset of Panama City’s hourly electrical load is brought into use. Two models, namely the Seasonal Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Factors (SARIMAX) and the BATS model, are deemed to be the two best time series models. The selection of optimal seasonal and non-seasonal orders in SARIMAX is made by comparing Bayes Information Criterion (BIC). For the SARIMAX model, a daily dataset has been taken by summing the hourly data for each day, whereas for the BATS model, hourly data for the year 2018 has been used. The SARIMAX model resulted in the best fit with the evaluation metrics values: Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 975,336.88, Mean Average error (MAE) of 739.09, and R2 score of 0.75. However, SARIMAX’s limitation is that the use of daily data does not allow dynamic tariff prediction, which is possible with the BATS model.
Keywords
Electric Load, ARIMA, SARIMA, SARIMAX, BATS
Full Paper: https://doi.org/10.1080/1448837X.2024.2405438
Abstract
Like many South Asian countries, Nepal can be identified as a “Motorcycle Dependent Country” as the chief mode of transportation on the urban streets of Nepal compromises of Motorcycles for their daily commute. With inefficient public transportation, haphazard lane discipline, and easy accessibility and mobility of PTW, there is a rising dependence on PTW. The risk of life that comes with this dependence is also increasing in the urban streets of the country. Therefore, this research proposes Motorcycle Lanes as a measure to reduce congestion and create a risk-free riding environment. Three scenarios– a) Considering Dedicated motorcycle lanes b) Excluding right turning traffic into dedicated motorcycle lanes c) Dedicated motorcycle lanes only for two intersection legs Maitighar-Tinkune and Tinkune-Maitighar have been proposed, analyzed and compared with base data to measure the efficiency of motorcycle lanes at the New-Baneshwor intersection. The feasibility of those scenarios was checked based on traffic volume, Q-length, and vehicle delay with base data obtained from simulation in VISSIM. It was observed that difficult turning movements, unpredictable riding behavior and signal phases rendered the lanes unfeasible. A need for a holistic approach to address current and future traffic conditions as PTW are poised to experience a high upswing in foreseeable future is an essence.
Keywords
Intersection, Motorcycle Lane, VISSIM, PTW, Urban Mobility
Full Paper: https://conference.ioe.edu.np/ioegc8/papers/ioegc-8-128-80183.pdf
Abstract
Microsimulation environment has been widely used for the evaluation of a network under various conditions. However, only few studies have been done for the safety performance evaluation of networks and are rarely performed in the Nepalese context. Such evaluation of an intersection is usually done with the statistical analysis of the crash data collected over a period before and after the modifications have been made in the intersection. However, the data collected may not be reliable as the damage only crashes have a higher chance of being unreported. Furthermore, the collection and documentation of crash records demand a huge amount of time and the solution needed to reduce the possible crashes may not be implemented timely on the site. This study demonstrates the use of microsimulation environment to predict vehicular interactions. VISSIM was used to model and calibrate New Baneshwor Intersection and generate vehicles trajectories. The trajectories thus generated was then fed into SSAM to predict the possible conflicts. Number of potential crossing crashes, lane changing crashes and rear-end crashes that are likely to occur per day at New Baneshwor intersection were found to be 1, 9 and 945 respectively. The relationship between the simulated and observed conflicts was found to be statistically significant with a R-squared value of 0.8545, 0.7474, 0.8677 and 0.9138 for crossing, lane-changing, rear-end and total conflicts respectively.
Keywords
VISSIM, SSAM, Surrogate Safety Measure, PET, TTC, Traffic Conflicts, Crashes, Safety Performance
Full Paper: https://conference.ioe.edu.np/ioegc8/papers/ioegc-8-128-80183.pdf
Abstract
Micro hydropower is a very promising renewable energy source for off-grid energy generation in remote areas where the resource exists. This study focuses on integrating an innovative new design of micro hydropower system called the Gravitational Water Vortex Power Plant into existing water infrastructure. Three types of existing water infrastructure are considered applicable for hydropower integration: irrigation canals, reservoirs and weirs. The theoretical designs for the civil works for the low-head gravitational water vortex power plant integrated into these structures are given and the costs of construction are estimated. A scalable system of 1.6kW is also designed and integrated in an existing irrigation canal for the technical performance evaluation and validate the theoretical economical study. The study concludes that the performance of turbine is mostly suitable for rural electrification and to integrate in cost-effective way, the civil works and installation cost should be greatly reduced.
Keywords
low head turbine, cost, micro hydropower integration
Abstract
Pedestrian characteristics and public consultation are frequently overlooked while planning and developing road facilities resulting in a significant risk of crashes involving with pedestrians at crossings in Nepal. Birgunj Bus Park and Ghantaghar Bus Stop being located near Ghantaghar intersection, Birgunj there is always a problem for the traffic police in managing the vehicles and pedestrians at the same time. Pedestrian also attempt to avoid the traffic rules. The purpose of this study is to find out public perception on traffic facilities and waiting time at Ghantaghar Intersection. The intersection was deemed hazardous by 36 percent of those polled and a total of 34 percent of those polled said that installing traffic signals would be a good solution to the Ghantaghar intersection’s persistent road crossing problem. Furthermore, the average waiting time was found to be 6.87 seconds.
Index Terms
pedestrian, perception study, intersection safety, waiting time
Abstract
The number of vehicles in Kathmandu Valley is growing at a rate of 12 percent per year. Manual traffic management is time-consuming and stressful nowadays. The purpose of this research is to calibrate VISSIM for mixed traffic conditions. This research was carried out in the Ekantakuna intersection study area. The data were collected during peak hours of 8:30 to 10:30 AM on weekdays and weekends, using video that covered all four directions. The relation between the field volume and VISSIM volume was obtained with a R squared value of 0.9977, indicating that the variance of VISSIM output explains 99.77 percent of the variance in the field data. Pedestrian modeling and pedestrian-vehicle interaction have not been investigated.
Keywords
calibration, simulation, VISSIM, COVID